Bright side of crude oil shortage
November 9, 2007
Geologists like Colin Campbell and Websites such as Peakoil work to promote public consciousness of the fact that our crude oil supply is running out.
What will be the consequences of the looming scarcity of fuel and the consequent rise in oil prices?
First of all, long-distance flights will become the kind of luxury that they were until the 1970s, and they will only be available for very rich people.
Products that are currently manufactured through a global supply chain and flown around the world will once again be produced where they are consumed. The alternatives to air travel will be too slow to transport goods quickly enough for the kind of international trade we know today.
Happily, this will reduce unemployment caused by offshoring in traditional industrialized countries. The variety of goods produced will increase because they will be aimed at more local markets and tastes rather than the whole world.
Secondly, automobiles will once again be the rich peoples’ toy that they were until after the second world war everywhere outside the United States.
People will resort to public transport, bicycles and walking; which will reduce the global obesity epidemic. The cars in use will have a longer working life; even now the average age of the cars that drive on German roads increases from year to year. As a result of this the number of automobile workers needed will decrease and the commodities used in building cars will be used more carefully.
The growth of the internet, communication and data storage technologies will not be affected by crude oil shortages. This is because glass-fiber cables and computers can be constructed to use very little energy.
The globalization of ideas and the onward march of the English language will not be slowed down.
Many alternatives to oil and gas are quite labor-intensive to install and run, so unemployment will be reduced when they are more frequently used.
The prospect of crude oil shortages is often painted as a disaster scenario but it will result in a dramatic transition of lifestyles that might make the world a better place. We will be less wasteful and more localized. Surely these are desirable qualities in all communities.
